The
bookies or the bookmakers continuously aim to upgrade their soccer
predictions in order to keep away from paying out. However, we can
try to find weaknesses in their prediction strategies and exploit
them. To effectively utilize the drawbacks of their strategies and
beat their soccer predictions you can opt for two methods. The first
method is to analyze the non-measurable match information. The second
method is to improve the statistical prediction models that are
utilized by the bookmakers.
When
using the first method, you must analyze various kinds of data like
priority of a game, the type of game, players’ performance, their
health issues, etc. These data are not utilized in statistical
models. Some of the notable factors which have a direct impact on the
outcome of soccer games include the following:
- Type of Game: The match can be a friendly game, a cup, or an international or national league. For the bettors, the cup finals are more profitable because the media chooses the favorites. A well-informed bettor can maximize their profits by betting on underdog teams which are priced highly.
- Priority of the match: Since most of the teams have limited resources, they are required to define their priority for the upcoming matches. The examples of matches with low priority are the European national cups in which top teams participate and play against each other.
- Match time: This is extremely crucial because soccer predictions are generally incorrect at the start as well as at the season’s end.
- Health issues of players: Illnesses, injuries, and even transfers of key players are very important. The odds of the bookmakers are generally formulated before the availability of this information.
- The European Leagues: These can be predictable as well as unpredictable. Some of the predictable leagues include the Spanish, French, Norwegian, and Italian leagues. At the start as well as at the termination of the season, the German and the English leagues are highly unpredictable.
- Apart from these common factors there are some factors like weather conditions, match attendance, support for the home side, team managers, and pitch conditions which play a significant role.
The
analysis of such huge information for every game played is a
time-consuming and complex task. Therefore, Bestsurebet.com recommends you to adopt the
alternative approach, i.e. utilizing the highly developed statistical
prediction methods. This constitutes a major improvement on the
bookmaker’s prediction model.
When
you analyze the predictions of bookmakers carefully, you will notice
that the prediction models purely rely on the average statistics.
Teams that have high table positions generally possess low odds.
Teams occupying low table positions generally have high odds. If
there is any alteration in the team skills, the accuracy of
bookmakers’ models suffers. Therefore, the bettors are recommended
to consider team skill dynamics and place their bets on underdogs
which are highly priced. Also, the bookmakers’ models don’t
consider the defensive and attacking strengths of the teams. This is
important for forecasting the approximate number of goals.
